EW1: The climate conflict vulnerable clusters in areas of Eastern Equatoria

This Alert issued for the period of March–May (MAM) analyzes the implications of the 69th session of The Greater Horn of Africa (GHACOF69) MAM rainfall seasonal forecast for the first season of March–May (MAM) 2025 on conflict. It focuses on the climate conflict vulnerable clusters of the region and takes into account human conflict risk behavior as triggers of conflict. The areas are Lafon, Torit, Magwi and Ekotos The high-risk areas have been identified as those that have been forecasted to experience slightly better rainfall performance than the rest of the locations within the same sub ecosystems. These areas will therefore become areas of confluence for competition over the resources. The areas with depressed rainfall will mostly experience secondary human safety insecurities due to the out-migration of herds and energetic manpower leaving only the vulnerable populations behind including women, children and those with disabilities.